Indian Markets Weekly View (Feb 16–Feb 20, 2026) — Cautious & Volatile Setup

📍 Where the Market Starts This Week

Indian Markets Weekly View-Feb (16-20), 2026 Starts with previous session closed data:

Friday (Feb 13) ended with a sharp risk-off move:

• Nifty 50: 25,471.10 (−1.30%)

• Sensex: 82,626.76 (−1.25%)

• Bank Nifty: 60,186.65 (−0.91%)

• India VIX: jumped to ~13.58 on Feb 13 (volatility spike)

Big story from last week: the IT selloff dominated sentiment. Reuters reported Nifty IT fell 8.2% for the week, dragging the indices into weekly losses.

More details for last closed session keep reading Indian Markets Post Market Report (13 Feb 2026)

🧭 Indian Markets Weekly View: Key Levels & Weekly Map

🟦 Nifty 50 — Weekly Range, Support & Resistance

Last week (Feb 9–Feb 13) snapshot

• High: 26,009.40

• Low: 25,444.30

• Close: 25,471.10

Support zones

• S1: 25,450–25,400 (immediate support zone)

• S2: 25,250–25,200 (if selling returns)

• S3: 25,000–24,900 (psychological + strong demand area)

Resistance zones

• R1: 25,650–25,750

• R2: 25,900–26,000 (major supply zone)

• R3: 26,150+ (only if breakout sustains)

Weekly view: If Nifty holds above 25,400, bounce attempts can continue. If it breaks and stays below 25,400, the week may turn choppy with deeper dip risk.

🟧 Bank Nifty — Weekly Range, Support & Resistance

Last week (Feb 9–Feb 13) snapshot

• High: 60,876.20

• Low: 60,073.55

• Close: 60,186.65

Support zones

• S1: 60,100–60,000

• S2: 59,700–59,500

• S3: 59,000–58,800

Resistance zones

• R1: 60,500–60,650

• R2: 60,850–61,000

• R3: 61,300+

Weekly view: Bank Nifty is the “market mood meter.” A strong recovery above 60,650–61,000 improves confidence. Staying weak below 60,000 keeps traders cautious.

🟥 Sensex — Weekly Range, Support & Resistance

Last week (Feb 9–Feb 13) snapshot

• High: 84,482.95

• Low: 82,534.55

• Close: 82,626.76

Support zones

• S1: 82,600–82,400

• S2: 81,900–81,600

• S3: 81,000–80,500

Resistance zones

• R1: 83,200–83,500

• R2: 84,000–84,300

• R3: 84,500+

💸 FII & DII Overview (Last Week)

Here’s what institutions did in the cash market during Feb 9–Feb 13:

• FIIs: net ~−₹4,019 Cr (overall sellers)

• DIIs: net ~+₹6,884 Cr (overall buyers)👉moneycontrol

What it means (simple):

• When FIIs sell and DIIs buy, the market can still hold up — but rallies may feel “heavy” and slow.

• If FIIs return as buyers this week, confidence improves fast.

🧾 SEBI New Rules & Impact on Markets

Two updates worth tracking (because they affect trading mechanics and market structure):

🟨 1) Closing Auction Session (CAS) + Pre-open Changes

SEBI issued a circular on introducing Closing Auction Session (CAS) and modifications to the Pre-Open Auction Session.
Impact: better closing-price discovery over time, especially important for settlement/closing volatility.

🟩 2) SWAGAT-FI Framework (Trusted Foreign Investors)

SEBI’s SWAGAT-FI framework aims to streamline access for trusted foreign investors (FPIs/FVCIs).
Impact: longer-term positive on “ease of doing business” and smoother investor onboarding—good for sentiment, even if flows remain headline-driven.

🧮 Open Interest & Put-Call Ratio (OI + PCR) Cues

Volatility jumped hard on Feb 13, so derivatives positioning matters more this week.

• Nifty PCR: around 0.45 (shows cautious positioning)

• Bank Nifty PCR: around 0.87 (more balanced vs Nifty)

How to read this (no jargon):

• Lower PCR = cautious mood

• This doesn’t predict the future alone, but it tells you traders are not overly bullish right now.

🧾 IPO Updates (Feb 16–Feb 20 Week)

What’s lined up for the week ahead:

• Reports indicate Fractal Analytics and Aye Finance are expected to list around Feb 16, and only one mainboard IPO is expected to open during Feb 16–20.👉indiaipo.in

Investor tip: IPO weeks can pull attention and liquidity into the primary market. Keep an eye on broader-market mood if big listings come with strong/weak demand.

🛢️ Commodity Market Check

🛢️ Crude Oil

Brent was around $67.60/bbl. on Feb 13.

WTI was around $ 62.81/bbl.
Why it matters: rising crude can pressure inflation and the rupee. Stable crude is generally supportive for Indian equities.

🥇 Gold

Gold has been strong recently; Indian prices for 24K were reported around ₹1,56,200 per 10g on Feb 14.
Market meaning: strong gold often signals defensive positioning and “risk-off” hedging.

🥈Silver

Silver closed around ₹2,44,999/kg

💱 Currency Update (USD/INR)

The rupee closed near 90.635 per USD on Feb 13, nearly flat but with a soft bias.
Why it matters: a weaker rupee can make FIIs cautious; stability helps risk appetite.

🎯 Weekly Range Forecast (Feb 16–Feb 20, 2026)

Based on last week’s high-low bands and current volatility:

✅ Nifty 50

25,200 – 26,000

• Above 25,750–26,000: trend improves

• Below 25,400: caution increases

✅ Bank Nifty

59,500 – 61,000

• Above 60,650–61,000: stronger bullish confidence

• Below 60,000: choppy and defensive

✅ Sensex

81,600 – 84,300

• Above 83,500: recovery momentum

• Below 82,400: risk of deeper dips

🌟 Last Week’s Strong Performers: 2 Stocks + 2 Sectors

Last week was tough overall, but a few pockets stood out.

✅ Two Stocks to Track

• State Bank of India (SBI): Reuters noted SBI rose strongly last week on earnings optimism and loan-growth outlook while broader markets fell.

• Muthoot Finance: appeared among top gainers list on Feb 13 in market coverage (useful as a momentum watch). 👉Reuters

(Watchlist only for education purpose— not a buy/sell call.)

✅ Two Sectors in Focus

• Banks/Financials: still the key for market direction (Bank Nifty = mood index).

• IT (Risk zone): the biggest pressure point last week; keep position sizing tight if you trade this pocket.

💡 Investment Plan: Short Term vs Long Term

🟠 Short-Term (this week)

• Keep trades level-based (support/resistance), not emotion-based.

• Expect fast swings because VIX jumped sharply on Feb 13. 👉Yahoo finance

• Avoid overtrading options when volatility is high.

🟢 Long-Term (6–24 months)

• If you’re a long-term investor, this is a week to focus on:

  • quality companies

  • staggered buying (SIP/step-up approach)

  • avoiding “all-in” decisions during volatility spikes

FAQs:

❓1. How does the market look for Feb 16–Feb 20?

After last week’s volatility, the market looks a bit cautious. It’s not weak, but it’s not showing strong confidence either. This week may be more about holding key levels than making big moves.

❓2. What Nifty level matters the most right now?

Around 25,400 is important. If Nifty stays above this zone, buyers may try to regain control. If it slips below and stays there, we could see more pressure.

❓3. Why are FII and DII flows still important?

Because they tell us who is supporting the market. Last week, foreign investors were on the selling side while domestic institutions kept buying. That balance helped prevent a bigger fall.

❓4. What is the takeaway from current PCR and volatility?

Volatility has picked up again, which means moves can be faster in both directions. The current derivatives positioning shows traders are still cautious rather than aggressively bullish.

❓ 5. Which sectors should investors watch this week?

Banking stocks remain key for overall direction. IT needs to stabilize after recent weakness. If banks stay firm, the broader market may stay steady.

👉Further reading

Indian Stock Market Weekly View (Feb 9–Feb 13, 2026)

SIP vs Lump Sum: Which Is Better for Mutual Fund Investors?

India’s New Labor Codes: Why Companies Are Taking “Thousand-Crore”

Q3 FY26 Results: SBI, BSE, KPIT, DFPCL (Deepak Fertilizers) & Tata Steel (with CMP, Fundamentals, Technicals, Peers & Key Levels)

Stock Market 101 – Lesson 17: Trading Psychology (Biases, FOMO, and Discipline)

📊 Stock Market 101 – Lesson 16 💰 Hidden Trading Costs, Fees & Tax Basics Made Simple (Beginner-Friendly Guide)

✅Disclaimer:

This content is for educational and informational purposes only and not investment advice. Markets are subject to risk. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.