Indian Markets Weekly View (Feb 1–Feb 6, 2026) — Budget-Driven Volatility Ahead
🏛️ Big Weekly Trigger — Budget Day Special Trading Session (Sunday)
Indian Markets Weekly View: This week is unusual because Indian markets are open on Sunday, Feb 1, 2026, to coincide with the Union Budget 2026. Expect sharp moves, gap risks, and headline-driven swings, especially in sectors sensitive to government spending and taxation (banks, infra, defence, capex themes, consumption).
📍 Current Key Levels — Where the Market Starts
✅ Closing Levels (Latest available close: Jan 30, 2026)
Nifty 50: 25,320.65
Sensex: 82,269.78
Bank Nifty: 59,610.45
India VIX: 13.63 (volatility cooled but still “active” for Budget week)
👉More details keep reading Indian Markets Post Market Report Today (30.01.2026)
🧠 What this structure says
Nifty held a range of ~24,932 to ~25,458 last week and finished with a modest gain—classic “wait for Budget” behaviour. The rupee remains under pressure near record-low territory (near 92/$), which can influence foreign flows and import-heavy sectors.
🧭 Weekly View — Trend & Market Mood
📌 Nifty 50 Weekly View (Bias: “Range-first, breakout later”)
Budget weeks often start with noise and end with direction. With Nifty at 25,320, bulls want quick acceptance above last week’s ceiling; bears want a breakdown below the floor.
What to watch
If Nifty holds above 25,200–25,250, dips may get bought. If Nifty slips below 24,900, the market may shift to a deeper corrective mode.
🏦 Bank Nifty Weekly View (Bias: “High beta + results + policy sensitivity”)
Bank Nifty is the first place big money expresses conviction. With the index near 59,542, a stable move above the next resistance zone would improve sentiment; otherwise, expect fast whipsaws.
🧾 Sensex Weekly View (Bias: “Headline-sensitive, stock-specific leadership”)
Sensex around 82,270 suggests the market is still trying to stabilise after a weak month; leadership could rotate quickly (financials/energy one day, defensives the next).
🧱 Indian Markets Weekly View Support & Resistance
🟦 Nifty 50 Levels
Support zones
S1: 25,150 – 25,050
S2: 24,950 – 24,900 (weekly “make-or-break” level)
S3: 24,650 – 24,550 (only if panic expands)
Resistance zones
R1: 25,450 – 25,500
R2: 25,650 – 25,750 (strong supply zone if Budget disappoints)
(These levels align with the recent weekly range and current close behaviour.)
🟧 Bank Nifty Levels
Support zones
S1: 59,000 – 58,800
S2: 58,200 – 58,000
Resistance zones
R1: 60,000 – 60,200
R2: 60,800 – 61,000
(Bank Nifty is volatile; treat zones, not exact numbers.) 👉finance.yahoo.com
🟥 Sensex Levels
Support zones
S1: 81,700 – 81,300
S2: 80,800 – 80,000
Resistance zones
R1: 82,700 – 83,000
R2: 83,600 – 84,000
💰 FII & DII Overview — Last Week’s Flow Picture (Jan 27–Jan 30)
Here’s what institutional money did in the most recent week (4 sessions):
Jan 27: FII -₹3,068.49 cr, DII +₹8,999.71 cr
Jan 28: FII +₹480.26 cr, DII +₹3,360.59 cr
Jan 29: FII -₹393.97 cr, DII +₹2,638.76 cr
Jan 30: FII +₹2,251.37 cr, DII -₹601.03 cr
Weekly net (approx.)
FIIs: ~-₹731 cr (net sellers) DIIs: ~+₹14,398 cr (strong net buyers)
Why it matters this week
If FIIs keep selling while DIIs keep absorbing, the market may stay range-bound. If FIIs flip strongly positive post-Budget, the breakout probability rises fast.
🧮 Derivatives (OI + PCR) — What Options Are Signaling
✅ Nifty PCR (Put-Call Ratio)
Nifty PCR: 0.7644 (as of Jan 30 view)
Interpretation (simple)
PCR below 1 suggests traders are still cautious (more calls vs puts), but not extreme panic. With VIX near 13.63, the market is pricing movement—just not chaos.
Budget week note: PCR and OI can change sharply after Sunday’s session—treat these as “live indicators,” not fixed truths for the whole week.
🏛️ SEBI New Rules — What’s New and Market Impact
Two fresh SEBI circulars (Jan 16, 2026) are worth tracking:
✅ 1) Closing Auction Session (CAS) + Pre-Open modifications
SEBI introduced a Closing Auction Session (CAS) in the equity cash segment and made certain modifications in the pre-open auction mechanism. Impact: better closing price discovery and potentially reduced end-of-day price distortions (useful for institutional execution, indices, and ETFs).
✅ 2) SWAGAT-FI framework for FPIs/FVCIs
SEBI rolled out SWAGAT-FI (“Single Window Automatic and Generalised Access for Trusted Foreign Investors”).
Impact: improves process efficiency for foreign investors; longer-term positive for participation, though actual flows still depend on macro and earnings.
🧾 IPO Updates — What’s Active in Feb 1–Feb 6 Week
🟩 Current IPO (SME)
CKK Retail Mart IPO (NSE SME): Opened Jan 30, closes Feb 3, listing expected Feb 6 (as reported).
🟦 More SME action mid-week
NFP Sampoorna Foods (SME): subscription window Feb 4–Feb 6 (platform schedules).
📰 Big headline (not a February listing, but important sentiment)
Reuters reported SEBI approval for NSE’s IPO (process to move forward; draft filing expected later).
This can influence “market ecosystem” sentiment, even if it’s not an immediate listing event.
🛢️ Commodity Market — Macro Cues to Watch
🟫 Crude (Brent)
Brent crude (Jan 30): ~$69.82/bbl 👉investing
WTI ~$65.74/bbl
What it means: higher crude can support energy names but may pressure inflation expectations and import costs if it keeps rising.
🥇Gold
Gold ~₹1,49,075/10g
🥈 Silver (high volatility right now)
Silver ~₹2,91,922/kg
Reports highlighted a sharp drop in MCX gold and an unusually large move in silver.
What it means: when metals swing hard, it often reflects global positioning + USD moves; it can spill into broader risk sentiment.
💱 Currency Update — Rupee Watch (USD/INR)
Reuters noted rupee weakness near a record low around 91.99/$, driven by foreign outflows and dollar demand; RBI intervention helped cap moves.
Why it matters for equities
Persistent rupee weakness can keep FIIs cautious. Exporters may get a tailwind; import-heavy sectors may feel margin pressure.
🔮 Weekly Range Forecast (Feb 1–Feb 6)
This is a Budget + volatility week. A practical forecast is best expressed as ranges, not point targets.
Base-case (headline swings, but range holds)
Nifty: 24,900 – 25,750
Bank Nifty: 58,800 – 61,000
Sensex: 80,800 – 84,000
Bull-case (Budget comforts markets + flows improve)
Nifty can attempt 25,750+, with fast momentum if FIIs turn net buyers.
Risk-case (rupee + crude + policy surprises)
If Nifty loses 24,900, next support area becomes relevant quickly; volatility may expand.
✅ Last Week’s Better Performance — 2 Stocks + 2 Sectors to Track
Based on recent market-moving sessions and sector leadership mentions:
📌 Two stocks that stood out (recent momentum)
ONGC (strong move on oil strength and news flow)
Oil India (strong energy momentum in the same move) 👉Reuters
📌 Two sectors with visible leadership
Energy (benefits when crude is firm; also attracts momentum flows)
Financials (often the first to react to Budget intent + liquidity expectations)
(These are “watchlist” observations, not buy/sell calls.)
🧠 Investment Plan — Short Term vs Long Term (Budget week edition)
🔹 Short Term (1–10 sessions)
Trade smaller size than usual: Budget week whipsaws can hit both sides. Prefer zones (support/resistance) over chasing breakouts. If you use options, think in defined-risk setups; avoid oversized naked bets because gaps can be brutal on Sunday/Monday reaction.
🔹 Medium Term (1–8 weeks)
Use “confirmation investing”: Add risk if Nifty sustains above 25,500–25,650. Reduce risk if Nifty breaks below 24,900 and fails to recover.
🔹 Long Term (6–24 months)
Continue SIPs if you’re a long-term investor. Keep dry powder for sharp dips (Budget outcomes can create temporary overreactions). Stick to quality + diversification; avoid overconcentration in one Budget theme.
👉Further reading
India Pre-Budget Forecast 2026 (Part – 2): The Fine Print Investors Should Track
Pre-Budget Market Outlook (Union Budget 2026-27) — What the Market Is Pricing In
India’s New Labor Codes: Why Companies Are Taking “Thousand-Crore”
Why FIIs &FPIs Are Selling Indian Stocks
SIP vs Lump Sum: Which Is Better for Mutual Fund Investors?
Corporate Actions Made Simple for Beginners Stock Market 101-Lesson 15
Stock Market 101 – Chart Patterns Explained
Q3 FY26 Results Update: TCS, Infosys, HCLTech
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This content is for educational purposes only and not investment advice. Stock market investments are subject to market risks. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before investing.