🌍 Global Cues
Global markets are showing early signs of recovery.
US markets ended mixed overnight as investors balanced weak inflation data with renewed trade tension between the US and China.
Asian indices traded steady this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng marginally higher.
Oil prices remain soft, hitting five-month lows (~$62.3 per barrel) — a positive for India’s import bill.
US Dollar Index stays near 106 levels, while Rupee hovers around ₹88.78 per USD, cushioned by RBI intervention.
📈 GIFT Nifty Outlook
GIFT Nifty is trading around 25,280–25,300, suggesting a flat-to-positive start for Indian equities after Tuesday’s mild selloff.
Traders expect the market to remain range-bound in early trade, with focus shifting to Q2 results and global trade headlines.
📉 Nifty, Sensex & Bank Nifty — Key Levels
Nifty 50 closed at 25,146 (-0.32%) on Tuesday.
🔹 Support: 25,050–25,000
🔹 Resistance: 25,350–25,450
Sustained trade above 25,450 could trigger an upmove towards 25,600.
Sensex ended at 82,037 (-0.35%);
key support lies at 81,800,
resistance near 83,000.
Bank Nifty settled at 56,479 (-0.26%)
And remains strong as long as it holds above 56,100–55,900.
👉 Market structure remains intact; any dip toward 25,000 is likely to attract buyers.
💹 Derivatives & Volatility (OI, PCR & VIX)
Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands near 1.05, indicating balanced positioning.
India VIX at 11.15 reflects low volatility, suggesting calm sentiment but also warning that any sudden global trigger can amplify moves.
OI Data: Heavy Call writing at 25,400–25,500 and Put buildup at 25,000–25,200 indicates a tightly defined trading band for now.
🏦 FII & DII Data
On 14 October 2025:
FIIs: Net sellers of ₹1,508 crore
DIIs: Net buyers of ₹3,661 crore
Domestic institutional support continues to offset foreign selling, showing steady confidence from local investors even as FIIs remain cautious.
🛢 Commodities & Currency Update
Crude Oil (Brent): $62.3 per barrel — positive for India markets.
Gold (24K): ₹1,28,360 per 10g — near record highs
Silver: ₹1.89 lakh per kg — elevated amid festive demand USD/INR: 88.70–88.80 range — stable despite global volatility
Falling oil prices and a stable rupee provide comfort to inflation-sensitive sectors like autos, FMCG, and logistics.
🧾 Q2 FY26 Results Impact
Q2 earnings are slowly picking up pace:
HCLTech posted stronger revenue growth, giving a mild boost to IT sentiment.
Banks continue to show healthy loan growth and stable margins.
The upcoming results from large-cap FMCG and auto names will decide the next trend in domestic markets.
⚔️ US–China–India Trade Watch
The US–China tariff tensions continue to create global market jitters.
While India remains insulated to some extent, exporters in IT and metals may see volatility. Any easing in tensions could spark a relief rally in risk assets.
💰 IPO & Primary Market Buzz
LG Electronics India listed with a strong 50% premium, highlighting robust investor demand.
Canara Robeco AMC IPO saw heavy subscription (~9.7x) — allotment in progress. Rubicon Research expected to list tomorrow (16 Oct).
IPO markets remain active, showing strong retail and institutional interest despite secondary market consolidation.
🔮 Sector Forecast
Banking & Financials: Continue to lead; watch PSU banks for pullback.
IT: Cautious optimism after HCLTech; still tracking global signals.
Pharma: Remains a safe-haven sector in volatile sessions.
Metals: May stay choppy due to weak China cues.
Autos & FMCG: Festive momentum, soft crude, and steady demand make these sectors near-term favourites.
🎯 Short-Term & Long-Term View
Short Term:
Buy-on-dips remains the preferred strategy while Nifty holds above 25,000. A move above 25,450 could trigger a short-covering rally.
Long Term:
India’s growth story stays intact. Focus on quality banking, consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing themes. Avoid high-beta stocks until global uncertainty settles.
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