🌍 Global & Macro Signals
Overnight, global markets faced pressure as renewed tariff announcements from the U.S. rattled sentiment, especially in Asia. Reuters notes new U.S. tariffs announced by President Trump on a range of goods and slowing expectations of aggressive cuts by the Fed.
The Indian rupee remains vulnerable amid continued foreign outflows and macro uncertainty. Reuters reports that portfolio outflows and U.S. policy concerns are weighing on the rupee, with non-deliverable forward rates signaling further weakness.
Domestically, investor focus will be on FII/DII flows, cue from global markets (especially U.S. inflation / Fed commentary), and how commodity prices (especially crude) behave early in the day.
📈 GIFT Nifty Signal & Early Bias
GIFT Nifty is hinting at a negative opening. A recent article from Economic Times reports GIFT Nifty was down ~55 points in early trade, signaling bearish bias before markets open.
From Moneycontrol, the futures indicate the Nifty Sep contract is down ~0.60%, and open interest is contracting by about 12%, suggesting some unwinding of aggressive positions.
Expect the domestic session to begin cautiously, with a tentative downside slant unless early strength emerges in global indices.
🏦 Index Views, Levels & Market Tone
Nifty, Bank Nifty & Sensex will likely trade in a subdued mode unless there’s a strong catalyst.
📊 Nifty Support & Resistance
Resistance: ~ 25,000 – 25,040 zone (20-day EMA area)
Next resistance zone beyond that: ~ 25,125 – 25,200 (psychological + option strike clusters)
Support: 24,876 (50-day moving average / mid support)
Deeper support: ~ 24,740 and further down ~ 24,600 if weakness accelerates
🏦 Bank Nifty Support & Resistance
Resistance: ~ 55,300 is seen as an immediate hurdle.
Stronger resistance zone: 55,800 to 56,000+ if momentum returns.
Support: ~ 54,700 – 54,900 zone (38.2% retracement + recent minor lows)
Deeper support: ~ 54,000 – 54,500 if pressure intensifies.
🏙 Sensex Support & Resistance
Resistance range: ~ 82,500 – 83,000+ (past peaks / psychological band)
Support: ~ 81,500 is a base zone often cited.
Further downside support: zones below 81,500 if breaks, possibly ~80,900 – 80,600 depending on momentum.
Because global cues are weak, these technical zones may serve as floors and ceilings for intraday swings. Any strong move will likely need help from foreign flows or commodity surprises.
🔍 FII / DII & Flow Dynamics
On 25 September, FIIs in the cash market recorded gross purchases of ~ ₹15,079.55 crore and gross sales of ~ ₹20,074.97 crore, resulting in net outflow ~ –₹4,995.42 crore.
On the same day, DIIs bought ~ ₹15,515.70 crore and sold ~ ₹10,412.69 crore, producing net inflow ~ +₹5,103.01 crore.
This shows the usual pattern — FIIs withdrawing, DIIs trying to absorb. In this backdrop, domestic flows will be crucial in cushioning declines.
🛠 F&O & Open Interest / Derivatives Cues
From the trade setup commentary by Moneycontrol:
India VIX rose 2.47% to 10.78, crossing some short-term averages and flagging potential volatility.
Among equities, 18 stocks showed long build-up (i.e. both price and open interest rising), while 82 stocks showed long unwinding (price rising but open interest falling or vice versa) — an early sign of mixed sentiment.
Nifty futures for September are down ~0.60% (trading ~24,967 at one point), with open interest down ~12%.
On expiry front, calls have maximum open interest around 26,000 and puts around 24,000 in the options segment, giving a sense of expectation zones.
These cues suggest traders are watching for support zones to hold; any break below could trigger sharper downside.
🛢 Commodities, Crude, Gold, Silver
Commodity behavior will be a significant driver today:
Crude is rising slightly in early trade — if global supply / demand signals stay tight, it’ll act as a headwind for Indian equities. Metals (gold and silver) may benefit from safe-haven flows if markets feel stress. These can act as natural hedges in volatile sessions.
Keep an eye on MCX futures for gold / silver and how they move vs global metal prices.
🔎 Volatility & VIX
India’s volatility gauge is waking up. As mentioned in trade setups, VIX has moved above 10.78 — that suggests market participants are sensing rising uncertainty.
A rising VIX in a weak market means traders should remain nimble — avoid large bets without confirmation and prioritize protective stops.
📅 IPO / Primary Market Updates
The IPO pipeline hasn’t lost its sheen, but in a weak sentiment environment, new listings may see slower subscription momentum early on.
Traders should carefully monitor anchor allocations and subscription flow in key sectors like renewable energy, infrastructure, and industrials.
💡 Investment / Trade Focus
Swing / Tactical Ideas
Watch Adani / infra / power names for relative strength — they may lead bouncebacks.
Names like Shriram Finance and Tata Power remain interesting for intraday or short swing setups if they hold key supports. Be cautious about chasing names without clear volume-based confirmation.
Long-Term Themes
Big-cap banks (SBI, ICICI, HDFC) — retain their appeal in corrections.
IT exporters (TCS, Infosys) — volatile near term, but fundamentals intact.
Clean energy / infra names — look for policy catalysts as long-term triggers.
In all cases, mix conviction with risk management — never fight the day’s trend beyond your limit.
✅ Final Thoughts
Pre-market cues are signaling caution.
GIFT Nifty’s drop, weak global cues, FII outflows, and rising VIX all point to a challenging start.
Your best play today is to trade with structure — respect support and resistance, keep stops in place, and selectively lean into strength rather than chasing breakout calls.
Markets could remain range-bound or trend downward unless a strong catalyst (global or domestic) breaks the inertia.