🌍 Global & Macro Cues to Watch
Global markets remain on edge.
U.S. futures are soft amid concerns over a possible government shutdown and renewed tariff talk.
Asian markets are cautious — China is closed today, while Japan and South Korea are watching U.S. cues.
Crude oil prices have eased slightly overnight, relieving some pressure on input inflation.
Meanwhile, gold and safe havens are inching up as risk sentiment creeps in.
A softer dollar is offering a mild tailwind for emerging markets, including India.
Today’s big highlight: the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) outcome, which may set the tone for Indian equities depending on forward guidance around rates and growth.
📈 Gift Nifty & Opening Bias
Gift Nifty is trading above yesterday’s Nifty close — around 24,765.5, which signals a positive start for Dalal Street.
This gap-up bias is in line with optimism that the RBI may hold rates steady and possibly hint at future easing.
However, the session may remain volatile — markets will heed macro surprises and institutional flow.
📊 Yesterday’s VIX, Currency & Commodities
India VIX (Volatility):
VIX climbed to ~11.43, reflecting nerves creeping into the market as participants brace for policy and global data surprises.
Currency (USD/INR):
The rupee recovered slightly, trading in the ₹88.70–88.80 per USD range, helped by dollar softness and commodity easing.
Commodities:
Crude Oil: Down slightly in overnight trade — easing pressure on input-heavy sectors.
Gold & Silver: Holding firm, supported by safe-haven demand.
Base Metals / Industrial Commodities: Slight weakness amid global demand concerns.
These moves matter: they directly influence corporate margins, inflation expectations, and investor sentiment.
🏦 Index Technicals & Support / Resistance
Nifty 50
Resistance: ~ 24,900 – 25,100
Support: ~ 24,500 – 24,150
A move above the resistance band with strength could rekindle bullish momentum; a slip below support may invite deeper selling.
Bank Nifty
Resistance: ~ 55,500 – 56,200
Support: ~ 54,500 – 54,000
Banking names are under pressure — watch how private vs PSU banks behave around these zones.
Sensex
Resistance: ~ 82,000 – 82,500
Support: ~ 80,000 – 79,500
Sensex will likely mirror Nifty direction but may lag if specific sector flow dominates.
Open Interest / F&O Insight
OI seems to be contracting ahead of policy — a sign that aggressive positions are being neutralized.
Strikes in Nifty 24,900–25,200 and Bank Nifty 55,500–56,000 must be watched: if price starts rising with rising OI, strength is meaningful; if price moves but OI falls, it’s likely short covering.
💼 FII & DII — Institutional Flow Snapshot
September 30,
📜 IPO / Primary Market & Expiry Caution
Gurunanak Agriculture IPO debuts today. Its grey market premium (GMP) is zero, signaling that listing gains may be limited.
The Nifty rebalancing kicks in — five names (e.g. IndiGo, Max Healthcare, SBI, ITC, Bajaj Finserv) will see index flows.
That could cause rotation and sector disruption. With expiry looming, volatility tends to rise.
Watch for pinning near strike zones, gamma reactions, and sudden reversals in the last hour.
📈 Trade Themes & Stock Picks
🔄 Short-Term / Swing Picks
Rebalanced names or index additions may see early momentum — IndiGo, SBI, ITC Energy /
PSU banking / defense are likely to remain in focus Avoid overly volatile sectors until trend clarity emerges
📌 Long-Term Picks
Large-cap banks: SBI, ICICI, HDFC — solid structural plays IT exporters (TCS, Infosys) — for global demand exposure Infra / renewables — policy support and long horizon growth
✅ Final Takeaway
Pre-market cues are leaning cautious to mildly positive.
Gift Nifty opens higher, but the real test lies in how markets digest the RBI MPC outcome, FII flows, and global surprises.
Elevated VIX means larger intraday swings are possible.
Trade with structure: let price, volume, and open interest guide entries rather than chasing.