Global Key Cues & Uncertainties
Global markets are focused on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting (16-17 Sept).
Markets expect a 25 basis points rate cut, but much depends on Fed commentary, inflation data, and labor market strength.
India-U.S. trade tensions are significant.
The U.S. has imposed steep tariffs (≈50%) on Indian goods, notably due to India’s continued oil trade with Russia. India’s exports to the U.S. fell from USD 8.01 bn in July to USD 6.86 bn in August. Trade talks are resuming. U.S. trade negotiators are heading to New Delhi for one-day talks.
India aims to fast-track a trade agreement’s first phase by October-November 2025.
Exporters are seeking policy support: The Indian government is preparing a Rs 25,000 crore Export Promotion Mission to shield from global disruptions.
Tariffs and legislative risks: A new U.S. bill (HIRE Act) could potentially tax payments to foreign workers (including Indians) used in U.S. services – threatening margin structures of major tech firms.
Gift Nifty Indication
Gift Nifty is trading around 25,161 level, about 3–4 points discount from Nifty futures’ previous close.
This suggests a flat to slightly positive opening for Indian markets, with initial bias leaning marginally upward assuming no negative surprise overnight.
VIX Levels & Market Volatility
India VIX remains relatively low (market sources suggest calm volatility prior to major events).
Low VIX indicates traders expect stability ahead of Fed meeting and India-U.S. trade developments. A spike in VIX (if surprise data or geopolitical risk) would signal possible pullbacks.
Current Index Levels & Market View: Nifty, Bank Nifty, Sensex
Nifty 50 ended last week around 25,114, up ~1.5%. Resistance expected in the 25,150 – 25,200 zone.
Strong support near 24,950 – 24,900.
A move above 25,200 could open up towards 25,500/25,700 in short term.
Bank Nifty closed around 54,809.30, showing strength with recent gains.
Zone around 55,000 acts as resistance; supports lie near 54,200 – 54,000.
Sensex also saw gains, led by energy, metals, and auto-oriented sectors.
Expect sensex to mimic Nifty; resistance in Sensex likely near prior highs; support not far below.
Commoditises: Crude Oil, Gold & Silver – Levels & Views
Gold: Prices in India have surged to ~ ₹1,13,800 /10 grams,
silver crossed ₹1.32 lakh /kg, driven by rate cut hopes and dollar weakness.
View: Strong uptrend. Short-term consolidation expected near current levels.
Key resistance around ₹1,10,000 – ₹1,11,000 region.
Support near ₹1,08,500 – ₹1,09,000.
Breakout above could push higher. Silver: At record highs in India. Industrial demand and safe-haven preference are supporting strength. View similar to gold — good for hedging; accumulation on dips might work.
Crude Oil: Global crude is under watch; supply concerns and geopolitical risk exist, but demand risk from U.S./China may cap aggressive upside. No firm recent breakout data in current reports, but any disruptions (Middle East, Russia) will push prices up.
IPO Updates
Several IPOs are opening or ongoing: Mainboard & SME IPOs:
Euro Pratik Sales, VMS TMT, iValue Infosolutions headline the mainboard issues.
SMEs such as TechD Cybersecurity, Sampat Aluminium, JD Cables also active.
Listed IPOs include Urban Company, Dev Accelerator, Shringar House of Mangalsutra; multiple SME listings like Vashishtha Luxury Fashion, Krupalu Metals, Karbonsteel Engineering.
Investors are cautious given high valuations, especially with macro uncertainties.
Subscription response for IPOs will be a key watch.
Investment Focus: Swing Trading & Long-Term Stocks
Swing Trading Ideas
If Nifty breaks above 25,200, short-term traders might look for momentum plays in Auto and Metals, both of which have shown relative strength.
Also, watch gold & silver charts for short-term breakout; safe havens may outperform in volatile sessions.
Long-Term Investment Picks
Energy / PSU Power Sector: Companies in power generation, transmission, and renewables seem good for long term given government thrust and stable cash flows.
Defensive Consumer / Pharma / Retail: Given global risk (tariffs, rate cuts), defensive themes offer buffer. Export-oriented / Engineering / Textiles: Those that can shift export markets (Middle East, ASEAN) may gain given U.S. tariffs on Indian exports.
Domestic Macros & Trade Deal Updates
India-U.S. trade talks are set to begin in New Delhi this week; expectation to discuss mitigating impact of 50% tariffs.
India’s August merchandise trade deficit narrowed to USD 26.49 billion (from USD 27.35 billion in July), but exports to U.S. dropped.
Government preparing support measures: Export Promotion Mission of Rs 25,000 crore is under discussion to offset trade fallout.
Market Bias & Strategy for Today
Overall bias: Cautiously Positive / Neutral-Bullish If global cues (Fed, trade deal, tariffs) are favorable, market could make upward move.
But risk of profit booking remains, especially in IT/Auto sectors. Strategy: For long-term investors: Use dips near support zones (Nifty ~24,900-25,000) to accumulate strong large caps.
For swing traders: Monitor resistance at 25,200-25,400; look for volume confirmation on breakouts. Hedge with gold/silver where possible given rate & geopolitical uncertainties.
Summary
Markets are positioned at a delicate juncture: upbeat due to hope for rate cuts, trade deal progress, and stable commodities aren’t too volatile. Gift Nifty suggests a flat to slightly positive open. Commodities like gold & silver are strong; crude is steady. IPOs are busy, but investors must pick wisely. Watch macro data (trade balance, WPI, Fed), and keep eyes on support zones. Use resistance levels as sell triggers for short-term trades, and lean into sectors that benefit from policy tailwinds.