🌍 Global Market Cues & Sentiment
US markets are cautiously optimistic with hopes of a Fed rate cut ahead, which is fueling risk sentiment globally.
Crude oil and dollar index remain volatile, which may impact energy and import-heavy sectors in India.
Asia-Pacific markets largely flat; Gift Nifty indicates a modest positive open for India.
⚠️ Global Uncertainties to Watch
Ongoing geopolitical tensions: US tariff policies (especially related to Russian oil), and inflationary pressures. Potential disruptions in supply chains due to global energy and trade policy changes. Uncertainty over when the US will formally announce rate policy changes.
🤝 India-US Trade Deal & Key Trade / Policy Updates
India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal says the first tranche of the India-US trade agreement is expected to be finalised by November 2025.
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick has linked resolution of the trade deal to India reducing its purchase of Russian oil.
India’s chief trade negotiator may travel to Washington next week for further talks; Modi-Trump call expected soon.
📉 India VIX Status
Current India VIX: 10.12 Change: Slight decline (2.3%) — showing a period of low volatility and a stable market mood.
Interpretation: When VIX is low (below 15), markets expect fewer surprises; useful for positioning (less defensive).
🔑 Key Index Levels & Technical Zones
Nifty 50
Support: ~ 25,000
Resistance: ~ 25,300 – 25,400
Bank Nifty
Support: ~ 54,000
Resistance: ~ 54,800
Sensex
Support: ~ 81,500
Resistance: ~ 82,500
🏆 Stock of the Day (Long Term Pick)
NTPC Ltd.
Fundamentals: Strong in power generation, growing renewables footprint, stable cash flows.
Technicals: Buy zone ~ ₹385-₹405,
resistance ~ ₹420.
🧭 Market Bias & Daily View
Bias: Neutral to Mildly Bullish – if key trade deal updates are positive and global cues stay stable, we may see upside.
A break above resistance zones in Nifty / Bank Nifty could lead to more strength.
Strategy: Enter selective positions in sectors likely to benefit from trade deal improvements (energy, infrastructure) or stability in global inputs. Avoid taking large exposure in volatile sectors unless confirmed.